The simulation takes all tanking talents + the new Primal Gore talent and Improved Mark (you can do that).
I'm using best in slot item.
Averaged out variable: mongoose on weapon, Noble Deck (agility)
I'm using Maul/swipe idol and 3T7 (legs, chest and shoulders).
I'm also using all possible raid buff + flask + food.
I'm not using priest/paladin shields.
I'm using Ispiration (+25% armor buff).
I'm also using 5/5 ferocity over 2/3 King of the jungle and 3/3 Improved Mangle
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Priority List
There isn't a real rotation, it's more a priority list.
1) Use mangle when not in CD
2) Use Maul always
3) Keep 5 stack of lacerate up (you will use lacerate every 13.5 second to minimize lacerate stack loss due to miss/parry/dodge
4) Use FFF to fill in and not in CD.
5) Use swipe to fill in.
In the following report I've assumed 100% mangle debuff uptime (manglebot) and 100% bleed effect (if you have a manglebot it's likely that there is a bleed on the target).
BEAR SIM report:
5 minute fights.
100,000 Simulations.
Time step: 0.01 seconds.
Latency: 90ms.
Boss Data
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Swing timer (before Infected wounds): 1.7 seconds
Swing damage (before Demoralizing Roar and Improved DemoR): 70000 damage
Special attacks: none.
Parry Gibbs: enabled.
Aggressive Stats after all the buffs (full stacked raid + Bloodlust used 1 times in a 5 min fight)
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Bear (crit% vs. a boss (-4.8% added)): 36.7678%
Bear (AP): 7000
Expertise: 49
Hit: 3.47667%
Armor Penetration: 2.43581%
Haste (from equipment): 4.44038%
Shield value = 1750
Boss base Armor (before penetration and debuff): 11900
Boss modified Armor (after penetration and debuff): 8823.71
Boss Damage Reduction (after debuff and penetration): 36.6795%
Weapon Speed Reduction % (Total without Bloodlust): 22%
Missed % (Total): 4.52333%
Dodged %: 0%
Not normalized attacks parried by the boss: 1.74092%
DPS: 3105.44 +/- 0.240665, (Min-Max variance: 20.6218%, Lower dps sample: 2782.51, Upper dps sample: 3422.91) , Cat: 0%, Bear: 100%, TPS: 6807.68
White bear: 0, Yellow bear: 3105.44
White bear: 0%
Mangle bear: 12.7763%, Average Damage: 2275.11, Maul: 62.4934%, Average Damage: 3906.14, Lacerate: 16.2888%, Average Damage: 6075, Swipe: 3.85039% Average Damage: 472.113, FeralFairieFire: 4.59107% Average Damage: 1317.4
Boss crit: 0%, Boss hit: 42.5784%, Boss miss: 57.4216%,
Boss white dps: 2792.9, Boss average weapon speed: 2.02005 sec.,
Boss average parried attacks x sec: 2.01381%, Average Boss White DPS increase due to parry: 0.977784%
Chance to die: 0.211433% without heals in: 5 seconds
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Defensive Stats after the buffs (vs. a raid boss, full stacked raid + Devotion Aura)
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Bear armor (before inspiration): 32028
Physical Damage Reduction Bear (before inspiration): 70.8205%
Defense: 423
Chance to be critical hit: 0%
Dodge (cat): 41.7344%
Dodge (bear): 47.7344%
Miss: 9.69364%
Total Avoidance (bear): 57.4281%
Total HP (bear): 44152
HP soft cap (bear): 42072.9
Shielded hits: 78.7976%
Inspiration uptime: 96.486%
Tank Points (hp equivalent with 0% avoidance, 0% Damage Reduction and without parry from the boss) (bear): 455878 +/- 141.912
Stats Value
Stats | Tank Points | STAM-EQ | DPS | APEQ DPS | TPS | APEQ TPS | NIGHT's CHOICE |
AP | 7,81 | 4,65 | 0,33 | 10,00 | 0,65 | 10,00 | 12,5 |
Feral AP | 9,37 | 5,58 | 0,39 | 12,00 | 0,77 | 12,00 | 15,0 |
Agility | 212,36 | 126,38 | 0,32 | 9,69 | 0,61 | 9,47 | 133,9 |
Strengh | 18,57 | 11,05 | 1,55 | 47,57 | 3,07 | 47,57 | 48,6 |
Crit | 9,44 | 5,62 | 0,50 | 15,26 | 0,97 | 14,97 | 17,4 |
Haste | -0,40 | -0,24 | 0,78 | 24,01 | 1,80 | 27,86 | 21,8 |
Hit | 5,18 | 3,08 | 0,82 | 25,22 | 1,90 | 29,47 | 31,6 |
Expertise | 104,08 | 61,94 | 0,82 | 25,29 | 1,90 | 29,47 | 102,2 |
Armor Pen | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,86 | 26,40 | 1,86 | 28,86 | 20,5 |
Defense | 130,48 | 77,65 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 77,7 |
Dodge | 159,80 | 95,10 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 95,1 |
Armor | 80,28 | 47,77 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 47,8 |
Bonus Armor | 11,34 | 6,75 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 6,7 |
Stamina | 168,03 | 100,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 100,0 |
Health | 10,39 | 6,18 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 6,22 |
You can found "Night's choice" value of all stats and item rankin here:
Armor - Items - World of Warcraft
Remember to put "additional armor value" inside "armor value" if you want to see the real ranking for neck, rings, trinkets, back, weapon.
Discussion
About capping value: hit caps at 8%, spell hit caps at 17% (used for demo roar and FFF). Expertise soft cap (dodge) is at 26 expertise, hard cap (parry) is at 56 expertise (-14% chance to be parried). Armor soft cap is at 40k.
HP soft cap: I wanted to put an indication of a good hp mark. My choice was to pick the hardest hitting boss in Ulduar and consider how much hp we need (without inspiration and parry gibbs) to survive 5 seconds without heals.
Parry gibbs: It's the main reason of wiping for a tank, they are the new crushing blow, that's why EXPERTISE is really really important, removing the chance to be parry gibbed means having more stable health, avoidance is a random help, expertise instead remove the randomness.
Savage Defense: I've taken as an example the hardest hitting boss, obviosly when a boss hits for less, the shield is better, so the value of ap, crit, etc.. increase.
Talents: With dual spec, boss hitting harder and our armor nerf in ulduar, I think that we can easly avoid improved mangle and king of the jungle to take Ferocity. Demoralizing Roar decrease damage from melee by 10.4%. 5/5 Improved demo roar reduces damage by another 4.6%. It doesn't seems to much but is the way to put the HP soft cap at around 42k Hp instead of 44.5k HP...